Who Will and Should Win Oscar, 2009
In an attempt to make the Oscars a bit more with it, they’ve chosen Hugh Jackman to host the ceremony this year – how progressive and hip of them! Come February 22, when the stars flit down the red carpet and are judged on their dresses and tuxes, the majority of us will sit at home and start the grand guessing game at hand – who will win? My track record last year was pretty good, actually. Had I not chickened out in Best Actress and wavered between Julie Christie or Marion Cotillard, I would have gone 8 for 8 (I’m still proud of myself for getting Tilda Swinton correct). We’ll see if I can do as well this year, but like most years, the nominees most deserving in several races will most likely end up empty-handed. Alas, the Oscars are one of many awards, so most of those who will end up losers have already won elsewhere. Thus, if your pick goes home empty-handed, know that somewhere there was a critics’ organization that agreed with you and handed them a prize before Oscar night.
Everything in this category is just so prestigious and glossy and… prestigious, from The Curious Case of Benjamin Button’s blatant proclamation of itself as an EPIC OSCAR FILM to Doubt’s plethora of big acting moments for its central quartet to Frost/Nixon’s heavily-praised stage roots to The Reader’s intense literary overtones. Slumdog Millionaire is only prestigious because it’s acclaimed and people liked it, so look for it to win here. For my money, this category is very bleh. I’m not terribly excited about any of them: Doubt can’t escape its staginess and hammers home its central theme too heavily, Button is impressive because it manages to structure three hours of film around an essentially flat central character, Frost/Nixon is hard to get excited about in any sense, and The Reader is intensely problematic. So my vote goes begrudgingly to Slumdog, a meh vote that I feel a lot of the Academy will throw the film’s direction.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Anyone who remotely follows this site probably knows where my “should” vote is going to: once again, Pixar finds themselves a nominee in a major category that isn’t Best Picture, but until the Academy gets in through their heads that animated films like WALL•E are actual achievements, too, screenwriting nominations will have to do. This will likely be where Milk picks up its only major award, and quite frankly, it’s the last place I’d want it to win. I’m sure Dustin Lance Black is a nice guy, but the writing in Milk doesn’t work well enough as a narrative to elevate the movie to greatness. Just because you’re making a film about a real person doesn’t mean you have to include every god-damned thing that happened in his life. Ultimately, I felt the great actors were betrayed by a messy screenplay. Alas, I know I’m in the minority here, so what-the-fuck nominee Courtney Hunt (Frozen River), sorry-Sally-Hawkins! nominee Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), and like-not-love nominee Martin McDonagh (In Bruges) will be left stranded as voters flock to Milk.
Will Win: Dustin Lance Black for Milk
Should Win: Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, and Jim Reardon for WALL•E
Amy Adams is out off the bat – her nomination was a surprise (kinda) and honestly, when going up against Viola Davis, I doubt (har har har) anyone would say that Adams is better than Davis in their film. Taraji P. Henson rode the holy-shit-this-film-is-so-epic-so-it-must-be-fucking-awesome wave that The Curious Case of Benjamin Button rode to 13 nominations, and she should be happy being nominated: Lord knows I would be (she was excellent in the film, no doubt). Actors are often cited positively for having “a lot to do” with a role, but I’d give my vote to Marisa Tomei, who doesn’t have much of anything to do in The Wrestler, but milks her potentially one-note role for all its worth, providing the emotional core of the story in the process. Finally, with Winslet out of this race, Penélope Cruz can buy her a drink at an after-party as a thank you for bestowing front-runner status back upon her shoulders.
Will Win: Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Should Win: Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler
I won’t waste anyone’s time. How dare the other nominees for even being NOMINATED against Heath Ledger. The nerve. For the record, though, if it were any other year and Ledger weren’t in the mix, I think Robert Downey Jr. might be looking at his first Oscar.
Will Win: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Should Win: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
I love me some Anne Hathaway, I really do, but I’ve had some trouble getting excited about her awards love for Rachel Getting Married. Maybe it was the fact that I found the movie frustrating that’s overshadowed her strong work in the film – who knows? Regardless, it’s nice to see her getting some awards recognition, but I feel there’s a better year for her to secure a win. Angelina Jolie got nominated as a “sorry!” for last year’s A Mighty Heart snub, and Melissa Leo should just be happy to be invited along the Streep/Winslet showdown. Meryl Streep’s good, if not terribly mannered in Doubt, and if you’re gonna have someone deliver the heinously over-the-top final line of that film, you may as well have Streep, and she fairs about as well as anyone could possibly fair. Then there’s Miss Kate Winslet. Yes, it’s “her year” to win, and we’ve seen this sort of thing happen before (I’m thinking Julia Roberts). Except in Winslet’s case, she might actually deserve the damned award this year. She was quite good in Revolutionary Road, but she blows her role in The Reader out of the water. It’s a problematic film (that’s putting it nicely), but she sells every convoluted minute of it. It may not be Winslet’s best nominated performance (that would probably be Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind), but worse performances have won this award, and drastically worse performances have won courtesy Oscars.
Will Win: Kate Winslet in The Reader
Should Win: Kate Winslet in The Reader
It’s a two-man race here. Richard Jenkins is the Melissa Leo of the Best Actor race (out-of-nowhere nomination is the reward), Frank Langella was quite good but can’t win, and Brad Pitt rode the fame wave and the Button wave to a nomination. None of them can win. With Sean Penn, it’s a great performance, and it’s so against type that it seems greater than it maybe is, catapulting it into GREATEST EVER!!!OMGZ!!!1!!!1 territory. Mickey Rourke has the whole comeback thing going in his favor, and the film’s good, the performance is good, and he has the momentum that will probably tilt the victory towards him. My vote would go to Penn – there’s not a shred of Penn’s previous work in that performance and not a single unsure moment. The same could be said of Rourke, I suppose, but for me, Penn’s feels like the performance that will be remembered ten or twenty years from now as a truly great acting achievement.
Will Win: Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler
Should Win: Sean Penn in Milk
David Fincher’s been overdue for a long time here, and Stephen Daldry has achieved the miraculous task of getting nominated for an Oscar for each of his first three films (though this is by far his weakest film). Ron Howard and Gus Van Sant are along for the ride here – I mean does anyone honestly think either one of them can win this year? Truly, this is Danny Boyle’s to lose. The Slumdog steamroller during awards season has only gained momentum, and Boyle is on board. If anyone else wins this, it’ll be surprising. As is usually the case, my vote goes to the director of the best film nominated, so it goes to Boyle.
Will Win: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
The fact that The Reader slipped in for a surprise nomination is a travesty. Honestly. Even The Dark Knight would’ve been a worthier nominee here (or, of course, WALL•E). The film is so terribly flawed, and I know I’m in the minority, but that’s just how it played. Unfortunately, it’s probably gaining the most momentum because of all the buzz it’s garnered from Kate Winslet’s PR blitz and the Weinsteins’s traditionally aggressive Oscar campaigns. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button had the biggest buzz going into awards season, but it’s flattened out to something that I don’t think will garner many votes, and it’s a miracle Frost/Nixon made it to a nomination with such a lack of passionate support. And while we’re on passionate support, let’s talk about Slumdog Millionaire. I think it’s the best film nominated and while I can’t get behind the passionate part, I can certainly see why the film has caught on with audiences and with critics. That it will end up winning is fairly inevitable, and while the film’s dominance this season has made for a fairly boring competition, at least the best film of the short-listed bunch has been sweeping the awards.
Will Win: Slumdog Millionaire
Should Win: Slumdog Millionaire
© 2004-2009 Ben Waldorf. Posted February 10, 2009.