Who Will and Should Win Oscar, 2008
No Country for Old Men vs. There Will Be Blood. The ideological battle of Marion Cotillard, Julie Christie, and Ellen Page. The inevitability of Daniel Day-Lewis’s second Oscar and Javier Bardem’s first. A volatile Supporting Actress category (or is it?). Another year has passed, and the Oscars are upon us once more. Now that the Writer’s Strike is over, we know that the show will indeed go on with Jon Stewart hosting again.
I could offer an extensive essay here about the merits and faults of the Oscars, but ultimately, we film lovers look to the Oscars because they have always been the ultimate award for the craft. Whether or not this is fair isn’t important. We watch to see pretty people walk on stage and pick up shiny representations of achievement. We don’t watch generally for the suspense, and an article like this plays into this destruction of suspense, but I look at these yearly lists like Top 10 lists. They’re just traditional, and for a film lover, it’s a fun guessing game.
I should mention that I have yet to see Michael Clayton and There Will Be Blood, two prominent nominees this year. As I see them, I will update accordingly.
*Update 1: Having seen Michael Clayton, Tilda Swinton’s is the only nomination I can support. Can someone explain how the film got so many nominations?
*Update 2: Having seen There Will Be Blood now, I can get behind Daniel Day-Lewis’s win a lot more emphatically. He’s brilliant; the film’s alright.
With that, here are my predictions and helpful suggestions to the Academy (I’m just a giver) about who will and should win an Oscar this year.
Diablo Cody: Juno
Nancy Oliver: Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy: Michael Clayton
Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco: Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins: The Savages
Ever since Juno made such a splash at Toronto and started becoming the buzz steamroller it’s turned into, screenwriter Diablo Cody probably started looking for a dress to wear to the Oscars, and with good reason; she’s likely to win her category. While Michael Clayton is a praised picture, I doubt it will win much of anything simply because it’s too solid, too innocuously good to really stand out. Lars and the Real Girl is here as a “sorry Ryan Gosling!” nomination. Had Laura Linney not been nominated, the screenplay nomination for The Savages would have served as a “sorry Laura Linney!” nomination, too. That leaves Ratatouille, a delightful little film (and still the best I’ve seen from 2007), a film that even improves on Pixar’s daunting winning streak. Anton Ego’s speech at the end is probably the best-written voice over we’ll see for a long while, but the film’s animated. So of course it’ll only win Best Animated Feature.
Will Win: Juno
Should Win: Ratatouille
Christopher Hampton: Atonement
Sarah Polley: Away from Her
Ronald Harwood: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joel and Ethan Coen: No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson: There Will Be Blood
Fans of Atonement called the book unfilmable, but Christopher Hampton managed to find a way. The largely interior novel, though, could only translate so well, but Hampton gets points for effort here. Sarah Polley and Ronald Harwood should be happy with their nominations – both films have better shots of winning elsewhere. As with many races, we have a battle between Country and Blood. The Coen Brothers are most likely to win this, I think, and rightfully so. It’s a well-written film, and from what I’ve heard, faithful to the book. P.T. Anderson may have done more adapting, but the Academy is more likely to give him an award by upsetting Director or Picture for him, I think.
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Cate Blanchett: I’m Not There
Ruby Dee: American Gangster
Saiorse Ronan: Atonement
Amy Ryan: Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton: Michael Clayton
Cate Blanchett has managed to keep her momentum going with her role as Bob Dylan in I’m Not There, a feat she hasn’t managed with her role in Elizabeth: The Golden Age, a nomination that surprised a lot of people. If she’s to win, it’ll be here. Ruby Dee’s SAG award shakes things up a bit. Factor in Amy Ryan’s slew of critics’ awards that she inexplicably started stealing away from Blanchett, and Saiorse Ronan’s age (the Academy are suckers for youth) and this award will go to… Tilda Swinton. She has the least momentum, but the film can’t go away without an award, and this is the most likely place for a win. Swinton is an actress who’s been around a while in many great roles. I think she’s finally found one that will garner her some bling for the mantle.
Will Win: Tilda Swinton
Should Win: Tilda Swinton
Casey Affleck: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem: No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman: Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook: Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson: Michael Clayton
So Javier Bardem will win another award for his role in No Country for Old Men. It’s not even really worth talking about the others. If anything’s a lock, it’s Bardem’s win here.
Will Win: Javier Bardem
Should Win: Javier Bardem
Cate Blanchett: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie: Away from Her
Marion Cotillard: La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney: The Savages
Ellen Page: Juno
By far the juiciest category of the majors this year, simply because people are passionate about their picks, the Best Actress race is also tight, I think. In one corner is Julie Christie’s quiet and subdued turn in Away from Her, in another corner is Marion Cotillard’s histrionic and brilliant portrayal of Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose, a performance that’s anything but quiet. Then there’s dark horse Ellen Page for Juno who’s gotten Roger Ebert’s vote. I only mention this because, well, it seems to hold some value. He loved Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball, who won, and he loved Crash, which won for Best Picture. Both of these wins would be deemed upsets, so I don’t think we can rule out Page. Her role is heavily heavily scripted and she makes it all sound pretty effortless. Julie Christie has the lion’s share of the critics’ prizes, but Cotillard recently won the BAFTA. Do I smell an upset? My vote would go to Cotillard, simply because she has to do so much in the role, and she does most of it brilliantly and makes it all look easy. Christie makes it look easy, but she doesn’t have as much to do, and Page will surely be back another year to pick up a trophy, but she needn’t worry about bringing a bag big enough for an Oscar this year.
Will Win: Julie Christie or Marion Cotillard. I’m really at a loss.
Should Win: Marion Cotillard
George Clooney: Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis: There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones: In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen: Eastern Promises
Another pretty sure thing is Daniel Day-Lewis winning Best Actor for There Will Be Blood. The performance has already reached iconic status, I think, and he’s a beloved actor with a great role that he acts brilliantly (or so I’ve heard). Clooney already has his honorary Oscar for Syriana, Depp just keeps running up against stronger competition, Tommy Lee Jones was a surprise nominee here and an even more unlikely candidate for a win, and Viggo just might pull an upset, but I doubt it.
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Paul Thomas Anderson: There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen: No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy: Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman: Juno
Julian Schnabel: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
I generally believe that the Best Director award should go to the director of the film I liked best. Here, though, is a case where that isn’t true. While I have no qualms with the Coen Brothers winning this (and I think they will unless P.T. Anderson can pull an upset, which is certainly likely given the Academy’s track record with the Coens, but I don’t see it happening), Julian Schnabel did more directing and he did it better in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The film is like a mainstream piece of film art, and you have to admire somebody who has the guts to do the first 20-30 minutes of a feature in first-person point-of-view. The film straddles a fine line between art-for-sake-of-art and art-for-sake-of-story, but Schnabel deftly navigates the difference.
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Should Win: Julian Schnabel
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Atonement looked like the clear winner or at least front-runner a few months ago, but oh what mediocre to so-so reviews can do to momentum. Still, it was good enough to avoid the Dreamgirls-esque snub, but without a Best Director nod, it should just be happy to be read amongst the other nominees. Juno fills the requisite quirky/”The Academy’s Hip, We Swear!” slot, and Michael Clayton fills the requisite admired-more-than-loved slot. Essentially, this is a two-film race, and conventional wisdom would say that No Country for Old Men has this in the bag, and the part of me that loves a tense Oscar ceremony wants to believe that There Will Be Blood has enough momentum to propel it to an upset. I’m a realist, though, and No Country for Old Men has this pretty locked. If anything’s gonna upset, though, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if Juno snuck in. It stands out amongst the heavy drama around it, and that might just get some votes.
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: Atonement
© 2004-2009 Ben Waldorf. Posted February 15, 2008.